Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching7.2 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 10Taylor reached on bunt single to third, Castro scored on throwing error by third baseman Alberto.3–4
- 10Taylor reached on bunt single to third, Castro scored on throwing error by third baseman Alberto.3–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Robert Jr. homered to center (400 feet).3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Taylor homered to center (408 feet).2–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 1Buxton homered to left center (423 feet), Solano scored.2–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Vaughn doubled to left, Benintendi scored and Robert Jr. scored, Sheets to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 59%
- Fair odds
- MIN -117
- CHW +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.6 – 4.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −25 | +13 | CHW: Lance Lynn: team allows 1.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +65 Elo | MIN 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 28th of 306.4 | Runs allowed | 2.84th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +1.27th of 30 |
| 12th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 2–215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 1–0 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.