Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Hanser AlbertoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Gordon scored, Wallner safe at second on fielding error by first baseman Sheets.4–3
- 5Gordon scored on error, Wallner safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Sheets, Wallner safe at second on error.4–3
- 5Gordon scored on error, Wallner safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Sheets, Wallner safe at second on error.4–3
- 5Gordon scored on error, Wallner safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Sheets, Wallner safe at second on error.4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Larnach singled to center, Wallner scored, Taylor to third.4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Alberto homered to left center (390 feet), Sheets scored and Grandal scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Grandal singled to center, Benintendi scored, Sheets to third.1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Gordon grounded into fielder's choice to third, Taylor scored, Solano safe at second on fielding error by third baseman Alberto, Miranda to third.0–1
- 3Gordon grounded into fielder's choice to third, Taylor scored, Solano safe at second on fielding error by third baseman Alberto, Miranda to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Fair odds
- MIN -113
- CHW +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.7 – 4.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +10 | CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.94 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIN: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +21 Elo | MIN 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 28th of 306.7 | Runs allowed | 2.73rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +1.46th of 30 |
| 19th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 2–14th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.