Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Michael A. TaylorBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Yankees- Anthony RizzoBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Colten BrewerPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rizzo homered to center (421 feet).11–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul11–1
- 4Rizzo homered to right (371 feet).11–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play11–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul11–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 111–0
- 3Taylor homered to right center (377 feet), Vázquez scored.11–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–0
- 1Correa homered to right center (376 feet).9–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 28–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 1Julien homered to left (351 feet).8–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 1Taylor homered to center (418 feet), Vázquez scored.7–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 1Vázquez doubled to center, Solano scored.5–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Solano doubled to right, Miranda scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Miranda doubled to center, Buxton scored and Correa scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Larnach hit sacrifice fly to center, Julien scored, Correa to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Fair odds
- NYY -114
- MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 4.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +22 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · NYY: Jhony Brito: team allows 1.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +47 Elo | NYY 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.19th of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.7 | Runs allowed | 2.83rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +2.32nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 4th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 4–25th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.