Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Louis VarlandPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Correa doubled to right, Buxton scored and Taylor scored.4–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 7Garlick homered to left (380 feet).2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Stanton homered to left (373 feet).1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Correa homered to right (331 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Judge homered to right center (404 feet).0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Volpe homered to left center (394 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Fair odds
- NYY -112
- MIN +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 4.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +12 | MIN: Louis Varland (no track record yet) · NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +35 Elo | NYY 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.6 | Runs allowed | 3.44th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.8 | Margin | +1.55th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 3rd of 305–2 | Road vs home | 4–39th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–0 NYY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.