Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Hunter RenfroeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tucker DavidsonPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Devers singled to right, Verdugo scored, Tapia to second.5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 6McGuire reached on infield single to pitcher, Casas scored.5–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 6Hernández hit sacrifice fly to center, Refsnyder scored, Casas to third.5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 2Renfroe grounded out to shortstop, Neto scored, Ohtani to second.5–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 1Refsnyder grounded out to shortstop, Tapia scored.4–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 1Drury hit sacrifice fly to left, Urshela scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Renfroe homered to left center (355 feet), Ohtani scored and Ward scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 49%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- LAA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.7 – 4.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +24 | −2 | LAA: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 1.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +9 Elo | LAA 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.44th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.322nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 5–411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 0–3 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.