Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Gio UrshelaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Yu ChangBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Refsnyder walked, McGuire scored, Turner to second, Chang to third.7–9
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 47–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking7–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 37–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 27–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–8
- 8Chang singled to left, Hernández scored and Tapia scored, McGuire to second.7–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–6
- 6Ohtani singled to center, Ward scored, Ohtani to second.7–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–6
- 5Urshela singled to center, Ohtani scored, Rendon to second.6–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–6
- 5Rendon singled to left, Trout scored, Ohtani to third.5–6
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–6
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–6
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 25–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 15–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–6
- 4Refsnyder singled to left, Verdugo scored, Turner out at third on runner's fielder's choice.4–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 4Chang homered to left center, Wong scored.4–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 3Devers grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Turner scored, Refsnyder out at second.4–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 1Devers homered to left center (367 feet), Refsnyder scored.4–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 52%
- Fair odds
- BOS -110
- LAA +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.9 – 5.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +17 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +17 Elo | BOS 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.46th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.425th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+1.1 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 9th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 3–419th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.