MLB games
Updated
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Anthony RendonBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rendon grounded out to second, Ward scored, Rendon out at first, Trout to third.3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 6Chang scored, Devers to second on passed ball by O'Hoppe, Refsnyder to third.2–5
- 6Chang scored, Devers to second on passed ball by O'Hoppe, Refsnyder to third on passed ball by O'Hoppe.2–5
- 6Wong to home on error, Refsnyder to first on throwing error by third baseman Rendon, Chang to third on error.2–4
- 6Wong to home on error, Refsnyder to first on throwing error by third baseman Rendon, Chang to third on error.2–4
- 6Wong to home on error, Refsnyder to first on throwing error by third baseman Rendon, Chang to third on error.2–4
- 6Wong to home on error, Refsnyder to first on throwing error by third baseman Rendon, Chang to third on error.2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Devers homered to right (349 feet).2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Hernández scored on error by third baseman Anthony Rendon, Chang safe at second, Wong safe at third.2–2
- 4Hernández scored on error, Chang safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Rendon, Chang safe at second on error, Wong safe at third on error.2–2
- 4Hernández scored on error, Chang safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Rendon, Chang safe at second on error, Wong safe at third on error.2–2
- 4Hernández scored on error, Chang safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Rendon, Chang safe at second on error, Wong safe at third on error.2–2
- 4Hernández scored on error, Chang safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Rendon, Chang safe at second on error, Wong safe at third on error.2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Hernández doubled to right, Devers scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Renfroe doubled to left, Rendon scored and Ohtani scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 52%
Toss-upHit
LAA 48%BOS 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Fair odds
- BOS -107
- LAA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.9 – 5.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +6 | LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +1 Elo | BOS 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.56th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.625th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.215th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 6th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 2–421st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
AngelsRed Sox
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.