Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Brandon DruryBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Justin TurnerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Garrett WhitlockPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 3Turner homered to left (386 feet), Verdugo scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Drury singled to right, Rendon scored, Rengifo to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Fair odds
- BOS -111
- LAA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 5.0 – 5.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −6 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · BOS: Garrett Whitlock: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +23 Elo | BOS 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.73rd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.524th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 11th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 4–415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 0–2 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.