Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Max KeplerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Alex VerdugoBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Chris SalePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 10Verdugo singled to right, McGuire scored, Duran to third.4–5
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 24–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 14–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 10McGuire singled to left, Crawford scored, Crawford scored and Hernández scored, Casas to second.4–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 10Miranda grounded out to shortstop, Solano scored, Correa to second.4–2
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 34–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 10Buxton hit sacrifice fly to right, Gordon scored, Solano to third.3–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 8Duran grounded into fielder's choice to second, Hernández scored, McGuire to second.2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Kepler homered to right center (385 feet).2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 5Correa hit sacrifice fly to left, Taylor scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Devers singled to center, Verdugo scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 48%
- Fair odds
- BOS -106
- MIN +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.5 – 4.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | −5 | MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 1.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · BOS: Chris Sale: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +17 Elo | MIN 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.45th of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.8 | Runs allowed | 5.223rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 5–515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.