Washington Nationals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Twins- Joey GalloBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ruiz singled to left, Thomas scored.3–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 8Thomas singled to left, Abrams scored, Thomas to second.2–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 7Meneses homered to center (409 feet).1–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Kepler hit sacrifice fly to right, Jeffers scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 3Gallo homered to right (386 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 56%
- Fair odds
- MIN -118
- WSH +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.0 – 4.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −1 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIN: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +39 Elo | MIN 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.44th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.99th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–4 | Road vs home | 4–23rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.