Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adam FrazierBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting3-4
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Henderson singled to right, Urías scored, Frazier to third.4–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Frazier homered to right (377 feet), Santander scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Rutschman walked, McCann scored, Hays to second, Mullins to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 41–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 50%
- Fair odds
- WSH -105
- BAL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.4 – 4.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +16 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +3 Elo | BAL 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.6 | Runs scored | 3.626th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.917th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.224th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 2–828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.