Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting3-5, 4 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
White Sox- Gavin SheetsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Mullins singled to left, Henderson scored.8–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–4
- 8Santander singled to right, Rutschman scored, Mountcastle to third.7–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–4
- 8Mountcastle grounded into fielder's choice to left, McKenna scored, Rutschman to second, Mullins out at third.6–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 8Mullins singled to center, Mateo scored, McKenna to second.5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 6Henderson scored on Cease wild pitch, Mullins to second on wild pitch by Cease, Vavra to third on wild pitch by Cease.4–4
- 6Henderson scored on Cease wild pitch, Mullins to second on wild pitch by Cease, Vavra to third on wild pitch by Cease.4–4
- 4Mullins tripled to left, Henderson scored and Vavra scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 4Mateo hit sacrifice fly to right, Frazier scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 1Burger homered to right (367 feet).0–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Sheets homered to right (370 feet), Robert Jr. scored and Vaughn scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 55%
- Fair odds
- CHW -111
- BAL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.0 – 5.3 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +23 | BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 1.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +36 Elo | CHW 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.717th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 5.927th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.325th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 11th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 2–323rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 1–1 CHW in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.