Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting1-2, 3 RBI
- Tyler WellsPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Jake BurgerBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mike ClevingerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8O'Hearn doubled to center, Mateo scored.6–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 8Mateo doubled to left, Hays scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Rutschman doubled to center, Mateo scored, Mullins scored and Vavra scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 7Mullins walked, Henderson scored, Vavra to second, Mateo to third.1–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 41–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 30–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 6Jiménez singled to left, Benintendi scored, Vaughn to second.0–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 20–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 10–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 6Benintendi singled to center, Andrus scored.0–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Burger homered to left center (404 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 53%
- Fair odds
- CHW -110
- BAL +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.0 – 5.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +13 | BAL: Tyler Wells: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CHW: Mike Clevinger: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +20 Elo | CHW 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 5.928th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.326th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 11th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 1–221st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.