Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jorge MateoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
White Sox- Jake BurgerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael KopechPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Colás singled to right, Zavala scored, Burger to second.6–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–7
- 10Grandal doubled to left, González scored.6–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–6
- 10Rutschman grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Henderson scored, Mullins out at second.6–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–5
- 7Vaughn doubled to left, Andrus scored.5–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7O'Hearn walked, Hays scored, Henderson to second, Frazier to third.5–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 45–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 34–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 6Burger homered to left (402 feet), Jiménez scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 6Mullins walked, Frazier scored, Mateo to second, Urías to third.4–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 44–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 33–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 6Mateo singled to left, Hays scored, Urías to second, Frazier to third.3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Santander homered to right center (405 feet).2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Benintendi doubled to right, Andrus scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Burger hit sacrifice fly to right, Vaughn scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 49%
- Fair odds
- CHW -106
- BAL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.1 – 5.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +1 | BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHW: Michael Kopech: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +10 Elo | BAL 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 5.928th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.426th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 10th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 1–328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 1–0 CHW in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.