Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Austin HaysBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Nationals- Dominic SmithBatting1-4
- Josiah GrayPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 4Hays singled to left, Mountcastle scored, Hays thrown out at second, Frazier to third.1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 54%
- Fair odds
- WSH -109
- BAL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.6 – 4.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +18 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +30 Elo | WSH 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.9 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 5.120th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.324th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 2–728th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.