Washington Nationals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Twins- Jorge PolancoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Polanco singled to right, Miranda scored, Jeffers to second.1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Taylor homered to center (444 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Polanco homered to left (380 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Ruiz doubled to left, Candelario scored, García to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.1 – 4.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −14 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +18 Elo | MIN 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 18th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 4–413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 2–0 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.