Washington Nationals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Jeimer CandelarioBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Mets- Starling MarteBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Call singled to center, Robles scored.4–1
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 33–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 23–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 7Candelario homered to right (369 feet).3–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Marte singled to left, Escobar scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Abrams singled to left, Smith scored, Thomas to second.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul1–0
- 2Thomas reached on infield single to third, Ruiz scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 54%
- Fair odds
- NYM -116
- WSH +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.0 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +9 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +30 Elo | NYM 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.611th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 4–310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–0 NYM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.