Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Chris TaylorBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Noah SyndergaardPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Taylor homered to left center (422 feet), Peralta scored and Busch scored.8–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 6Barnes hit sacrifice fly to center, Vargas scored.5–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 6Busch singled to center, Outman scored, Vargas to second.4–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 5Freeman reached on infield single to shortstop, Taylor scored on error, Freeman safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Castro.3–7
- 5Freeman reached on infield single to shortstop, Taylor scored on error, Freeman safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Castro.3–7
- 5Freeman reached on infield single to shortstop, Taylor scored on error, Freeman safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Castro.3–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–7
- 4McCutchen homered to right (381 feet), Hedges scored and Hayes scored.2–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 4Hedges singled to right, Bae scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 2Hayes doubled to left, Hedges scored and Bae scored.2–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Santana singled to center, Marcano scored.2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Vargas doubled to right, Freeman scored and Heyward scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 58%
- Fair odds
- PIT -118
- LAD +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.2 – 4.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +13 | LAD: Noah Syndergaard: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +55 Elo | PIT 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.15th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 14th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 7–34th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.