Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Luke WeaverPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Pirates- Connor JoeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Roansy ContrerasPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Steer hit sacrifice fly to left, India scored, Friedl to third.3–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 32–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 8India singled to right, Barrero scored.2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 7Vosler singled to center, Fraley scored.1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 1Suwinski homered to right (407 feet).0–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Joe homered to center (419 feet), Hayes scored and Reynolds scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 57%
- Fair odds
- PIT -118
- CIN +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.5 – 4.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +5 | CIN: Luke Weaver (no track record yet) · PIT: Roansy Contreras: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +46 Elo | PIT 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.26th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.07th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 3–314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 2–1 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.