Tampa Bay Rays at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Taylor WallsBatting4-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Reds- Curt CasaliBatting2-3
- Nick LodoloPitching4.2 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Mejía doubled to left, Walls scored, Margot to third.10–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–0
- 6Walls homered to right (365 feet).9–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 38–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 28–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 4Arozarena homered to right center (388 feet).8–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–0
- 3Margot hit sacrifice fly to right, Walls scored.7–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 3Walls tripled to left, Arozarena scored and Ramírez scored.6–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2Díaz homered to left (440 feet), Mejía scored and Bruján scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Walls homered to left (379 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 54%
- Fair odds
- CIN -107
- TB +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.7 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +20 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 1.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +27 Elo | CIN 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.8 | Runs scored | 5.18th of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.9 | Runs allowed | 5.019th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+3.8 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 9th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 6–48th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 0–1 CIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.