Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting2-2
- Matt StrahmPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Reds- Wil MyersBatting4-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Barrero singled to center, Myers scored and Senzel scored, Friedl to second.0–13
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–13
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–13
- 8Senzel singled to center, Stephenson scored, Myers to second.0–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–11
- 8Stephenson singled to left, Vosler scored.0–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–10
- 8Fairchild hit sacrifice fly to right, Casali scored.0–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 30–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–9
- 5Friedl singled to center, Stephenson scored and Myers scored.0–8
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–8
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–8
- 5Myers doubled to left, Fairchild scored, Stephenson to third.0–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 4India doubled to left, Barrero scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 30–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3Myers homered to left center (401 feet), India scored and Steer scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Myers homered to left (406 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 52%
- Fair odds
- CIN -111
- PHI +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.8 – 5.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | +11 | PHI: Matt Strahm: team allows 0.99 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +11 Elo | CIN 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.518th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 5.021st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–6 | Road vs home | 4–38th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 3–2 CIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.