Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Connor OvertonPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9India hit sacrifice fly to center, Senzel scored, Barrero to third.8–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 28–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 9Bohm singled to right, Schwarber scored and Realmuto scored.8–2
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play8–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 36–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 9Realmuto doubled to center, Turner scored, Schwarber to third.6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7India singled to center, Steer scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 3Fraley singled to right, Barrero scored.5–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 35–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 3Realmuto hit sacrifice fly to right, Marsh scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 3Marsh tripled to center, Castellanos scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Castellanos doubled to center, Schwarber scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Sosa homered to right center (381 feet).2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 55%
- Fair odds
- CIN -113
- PHI +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.6 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +3 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CIN: Connor Overton: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +32 Elo | CIN 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.616th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.816th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–6 | Road vs home | 4–24th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 2–2 CIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.