Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Reds- Wil MyersBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Barrero doubled to center, Newman scored.2–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 5Myers singled to left, Fairchild scored, Myers to second, Stephenson to third.2–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 5Schwarber homered to center (438 feet).2–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3Myers singled to left, Fairchild scored, Stephenson to second.1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Stephenson singled to right, Steer scored, Fairchild to third.1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Steer singled to left, Barrero scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1India scored on fielding error by third baseman Sosa.1–1
- 1India steals third. India scored on fielding error by third baseman Sosa.1–1
- 1India scored on fielding error by third baseman Sosa.1–1
- 1Castellanos singled to center, Turner scored, Schwarber to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 52%
- Fair odds
- CIN -111
- PHI +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.8 – 5.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | +17 | PHI: Bailey Falter: team allows 1.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +15 Elo | CIN 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.520th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 5.018th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 3–210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 2–1 CIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.