Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting3-7, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Luis CessaPitching3.0 IP, 11 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stott singled to left, Marsh scored, Harrison to second, Realmuto to third.14–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play14–3
- 7Realmuto homered to left center (395 feet).13–3
- 7Pitch 11 : Ball In Play13–3
- 7Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul12–3
- 7Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul12–3
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball 312–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul12–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul12–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul12–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 212–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking12–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 112–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–3
- 5Bohm singled to right, Marsh scored on fielding error by right fielder Fairchild.12–3
- 5Bohm singled to right, Marsh scored on fielding error by right fielder Fairchild.12–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play12–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul11–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 211–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul11–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 111–3
- 4India hit sacrifice fly to center, Senzel scored.11–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 111–3
- 4Newman hit sacrifice fly to center, Steer scored.11–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 111–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul11–1
- 4Cave singled to right, Bohm scored.11–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–1
- 3India to home on error, Fraley to first on fielding error by first baseman Bohm, Fraley to third on error.10–1
- 3India to home on error, Fraley to first on fielding error by first baseman Bohm, Fraley to third on error.10–1
- 3India to home on error, Fraley to first on fielding error by first baseman Bohm, Fraley to third on error.10–1
- 3India to home on error, Fraley to first on fielding error by first baseman Bohm, Fraley to third on error.10–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 210–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 110–0
- 3Castellanos reached on infield single to shortstop, Turner scored, Schwarber to second.10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 52%
- Fair odds
- CIN -112
- PHI +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.7 – 5.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −20 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CIN: Luis Cessa: team allows 1.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +17 Elo | CIN 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.18th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.615th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.8 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–7 | Road vs home | 5–38th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 3–3 CIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.