Tampa Bay Rays at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Josh LoweBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Reds- Kevin NewmanBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9J. Lowe homered to center (401 feet).1–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 8Friedl grounded out to second, Barrero scored, Friedl out at first.0–8
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 30–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 8Barrero doubled to center, Senzel scored, Barrero to third.0–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–7
- 7Newman singled to center, Fairchild scored, Stephenson to second.0–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 7Stephenson singled to left, India scored, Fairchild to third.0–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 30–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 4Friedl doubled to center, Newman scored, Senzel scored and Fraley scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Newman homered to left (352 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 48%
- Fair odds
- CIN -102
- TB +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.8 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +5 | TB: Jalen Beeks: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +16 Elo | TB 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 307.1 | Runs scored | 4.910th of 30 |
| 1st of 302.6 | Runs allowed | 5.323rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+4.5 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304–2 | Road vs home | 5–411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.