Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Rodolfo CastroBatting2-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Jake BirdPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9McMahon doubled to center, Daza scored.14–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play14–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 114–2
- 9Smith-Njigba grounded out to first, Bae scored, Smith-Njigba out at first, Marcano to third.14–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play14–2
- 9Marcano doubled to left, Hayes scored, Bae to third.13–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play13–2
- 8Castro singled to center, Moustakas scored.12–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play12–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul12–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking12–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–1
- 6Castro homered to center (458 feet), Santana scored and Joe scored.12–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 19–1
- 4Moustakas hit sacrifice fly to left, Bryant scored.9–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 29–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 19–0
- 2Suwinski hit sacrifice fly to right, Castro scored, Mathias to third.9–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–0
- 2Mathias doubled to center, Joe scored, Castro to third.8–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging7–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 27–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 2Castro singled to left, Santana scored, Joe to second.7–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 27–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 2McCutchen homered to center (442 feet).6–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 1Delay singled to left, Joe scored and Mathias scored, Suwinski to second.5–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 48%
- Fair odds
- COL -103
- PIT +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.7 – 4.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +5 | PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +16 Elo | PIT 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.824th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 6.129th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −2.228th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–4 | Road vs home | 3–623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 2–0 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.