Colorado Rockies at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Elias DiazBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Díaz doubled to left, Cron scored.2–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 31–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–9
- 6Hernández reached on infield single to third, France scored, Raleigh to second, Suárez to third.1–9
- 6Pitch 9 : Ball In Play1–9
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–8
- 6Raleigh walked, Rodríguez scored, Suárez to second, France to third.1–8
- 6Pitch 9 : Ball 41–8
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 31–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 6Suárez hit by pitch, Wong scored, France to second, Rodríguez to third.1–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 6Rodríguez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Kelenic scored, Crawford out at second, Wong to third.1–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 4Rodríguez tripled to right, La Stella scored, Wong scored and Crawford scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Crawford singled to left. Raleigh scored, La Stella to third, Wong to second.1–2
- 4Suárez homered to right center (367 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Fair odds
- SEA -113
- COL +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.6 – 4.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −9 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +35 Elo | SEA 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.617th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.614th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.4 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–5 | Road vs home | 3–524th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 0–1 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.