Colorado Rockies at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Kris BryantBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Mariners- Jarred KelenicBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tommy MilonePitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Tovar walked, Cron scored, Daza to second, McMahon to third.3–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 43–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 32–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 6Daza reached on infield single to second, Blackmon scored, McMahon to second, Cron to third.2–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 4France doubled to center, Crawford scored and Rodríguez scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Rodríguez doubled to center, Kelenic scored, Crawford to third.1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 2Kelenic homered to center (414 feet), Hernández scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Bryant homered to left (383 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Fair odds
- SEA -111
- COL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.7 – 4.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −6 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SEA: Tommy Milone (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +14 Elo | SEA 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.716th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.215th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 2–525th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.