Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting2-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Rich HillPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Kris BryantBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching2.2 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suwinski homered to right (461 feet).14–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play14–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 213–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 113–3
- 8Castro hit sacrifice fly to left, Blackmon scored.13–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play13–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 113–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul13–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking13–2
- 8Moustakas doubled to left, Bryant scored, Blackmon to third.13–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play13–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking13–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 213–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking13–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 113–1
- 5Santana singled to center, Hedges scored and Reynolds scored.13–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play13–1
- 5Reynolds singled to left, Bae scored, Hedges to second.11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–1
- 5Hayes hit sacrifice fly to right, Mathias scored.10–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 29–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 19–1
- 3Bryant homered to left center (434 feet).9–1
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play9–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 39–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 29–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking9–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 19–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–0
- 3Hayes singled to center, Bae scored.9–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 3Bae grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Castro scored, Mathias out at second.8–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 55%
- Fair odds
- COL -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.6 – 4.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +15 | PIT: Rich Hill: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +33 Elo | COL 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.626th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.727th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 3–421st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.