Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Vince VelasquezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Kris BryantBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose UrenaPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 4Marcano scored on Ureña wild pitch.5–3
- 4Marcano scored on Ureña wild pitch.5–3
- 4Suwinski homered to right center (434 feet), Santana scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Santana doubled to right, Joe scored, Santana to third.2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 2Suwinski homered to left (364 feet).1–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 1Díaz doubled to right, Cron scored and McMahon scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Bryant homered to left center (425 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 46%
- Fair odds
- COL -103
- PIT +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.7 – 4.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −16 | PIT: Vince Velasquez: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · COL: Jose Urena: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +25 Elo | PIT 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 6.129th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −2.228th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–4 | Road vs home | 3–522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–0 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.