Tampa Bay Rays at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting1-3
- Levi StoudtPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6B. Lowe singled to right, Walls scored, Díaz to second, Bethancourt to third.8–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 27–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 3Walls singled to right, J. Lowe scored.7–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 36–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 26–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 1Margot scored on a balk.6–0
- 1Margot scored.6–0
- 1Margot doubled to left, J. Lowe scored, Margot to third.5–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 1J. Lowe singled to right, Arozarena scored and Paredes scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Paredes doubled to left, B. Lowe scored, Arozarena to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Díaz homered to left center (393 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 45%
- Fair odds
- CIN -101
- TB +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.7 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −5 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CIN: Levi Stoudt (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TB +32 Elo | TB 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.9 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 1st of 302.8 | Runs allowed | 5.324th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+4.2 | Margin | −0.519th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 6th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 6–513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–1 CIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.