Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Nick SenzelBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Connor JoeBatting3-3
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Santana doubled to center, McCutchen scored.2–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6Joe to home on error, Mathias to first on fielding error by shortstop Barrero.2–3
- 6Joe to home on error, Mathias to first on fielding error by shortstop Barrero.2–3
- 6Joe to home on error, Mathias to first on fielding error by shortstop Barrero.2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Joe to home on error, Mathias to first on fielding error by shortstop Barrero.2–3
- 6Joe to home on error, Mathias to first on fielding error by shortstop Barrero.2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Barrero hit sacrifice fly to center, Vosler scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 31–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 5Senzel singled to right, Stephenson scored, Vosler to third.1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Mathias singled to center, Joe scored and Suwinski scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Fair odds
- PIT -117
- CIN +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.5 – 4.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | +11 | CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 1.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +28 Elo | PIT 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.26th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.07th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–6 | Road vs home | 4–39th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 2–2 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.