Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Stuart FairchildBatting2-3
- Luis CessaPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Rich HillPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Fairchild singled to center, India scored on fielding error by center fielder Bae, Fairchild to second.1–2
- 5Fairchild singled to center, India scored on fielding error by center fielder Bae, Fairchild to second.1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 4Suwinski doubled to right, Santana scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Reynolds hit sacrifice fly to left, Hayes scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 60%
- Fair odds
- PIT -122
- CIN +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.3 – 4.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −38 | −9 | CIN: Luis Cessa: team allows 1.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PIT: Rich Hill: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +70 Elo | PIT 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.18th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.08th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–7 | Road vs home | 5–36th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 2–3 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.