Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Wil MyersBatting2-4
- Hunter GreenePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Vince VelasquezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suwinski doubled to right, Santana scored.0–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1McCutchen grounded into double play, third to second to first, Hayes scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 55%
- Fair odds
- PIT -119
- CIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.2 – 4.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +6 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PIT: Vince Velasquez: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +35 Elo | PIT 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.98th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.08th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 30th of 301–8 | Road vs home | 6–33rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 2–4 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.