Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- David PeraltaBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Julio UriasPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Connor JoeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 6Castro homered to left center (414 feet).2–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul2–5
- 6Joe homered to left (399 feet), McCutchen scored.2–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 1Suwinski singled to left, McCutchen scored.2–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 1Castro hit sacrifice fly to left, Reynolds scored, McCutchen to third.2–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Reynolds singled to right, Marcano scored.2–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Peralta singled to center, Betts scored and Heyward scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 55%
- Fair odds
- PIT -116
- LAD +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 4.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +12 | LAD: Julio Urias: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +38 Elo | PIT 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.09th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.25th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 14th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 8–44th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 1–1 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.