Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tony GonsolinPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Pirates- Jason DelayBatting3-3, 3 RBI
- Roansy ContrerasPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Freeman homered to right center (424 feet).1–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–8
- 7Delay doubled to left, Bae scored and Castro scored.0–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 7Bae reached on infield single to third, Marcano scored, Castro to second.0–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 7Castro singled to left, Santana scored and Suwinski scored, Marcano to second.0–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 6Delay reached on infield single to pitcher, Castro scored, Bae to second.0–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 5McCutchen singled to right, Hayes scored, Reynolds to second.0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 5Reynolds singled to left, Bae scored, Hayes to third.0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 55%
- Fair odds
- PIT -115
- LAD +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 4.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +6 | LAD: Tony Gonsolin (no track record yet) · PIT: Roansy Contreras: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +37 Elo | PIT 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.910th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.07th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 10th of 307–5 | Road vs home | 7–45th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 1–0 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.