Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching2.1 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Josiah GrayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marcano singled to center, Joe scored.2–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 3Robles doubled to left, Abrams scored and Smith scored.1–7
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–7
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 3Reynolds singled to right, Bae scored.1–5
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 2Meneses singled to center, García scored, Ruiz to third.0–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 2García singled to right, Thomas scored and Robles scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Candelario doubled to center, Meneses scored and Ruiz scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 51%
- Fair odds
- WSH -102
- PIT +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.4 – 4.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +26 | PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 1.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +6 Elo | WSH 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 3.726th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.9 | Margin | −1.224th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3011–4 | Road vs home | 2–1128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 2–0 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.