Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting3-6, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Vince VelasquezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Dominic SmithBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chad KuhlPitching3.2 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith homered to center (401 feet).16–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play16–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul16–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 116–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul16–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking16–1
- 9Andujar homered to left (390 feet), Delay scored and Maggi scored.16–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play16–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul13–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 113–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking16–0
- 7Maggi singled to center, Delay scored.13–0
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play13–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul12–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul12–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul12–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 212–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking12–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 112–0
- 6Suwinski homered to right center (444 feet), Hayes scored, Reynolds scored and Santana scored.12–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–0
- 4Santana reached on infield single to shortstop, Reynolds scored.8–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 4McCutchen hit sacrifice fly to center, Hayes scored, Reynolds to third.7–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 27–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 4Reynolds singled to right, Delay scored on error by first baseman Smith and Marcano scored, Reynolds to second, Hayes safe at third on error.6–0
- 4Reynolds singled to right, Delay scored on error by first baseman Smith and Marcano scored, Reynolds to second, Hayes safe at third on error.6–0
- 4Reynolds singled to right, Delay scored on error by first baseman Smith and Marcano scored, Reynolds to second, Hayes safe at third on error.6–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Suwinski doubled to right, Santana scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 55%
- Fair odds
- PIT -101
- WSH +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.2 – 4.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −12 | PIT: Vince Velasquez: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · WSH: Chad Kuhl: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +34 Elo | PIT 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.824th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3010–4 | Road vs home | 2–1028th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.