Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Patrick WisdomBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Call doubled to center, Robles scored and Abrams scored.1–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 7Abrams singled to right, Smith scored.1–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 7Wisdom homered to center (426 feet).1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3García singled to center, Abrams scored, Call to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 49%
- Fair odds
- WSH -105
- CHC +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.5 – 4.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −8 | CHC: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +5 Elo | CHC 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.7 | Margin | −1.124th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 9th of 307–5 | Road vs home | 3–1228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.