Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Drew SmylyPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Happ homered to right center (394 feet).5–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Swanson homered to left center (389 feet), Hoerner scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Thomas homered to center (424 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Mancini doubled to left, Suzuki scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Suzuki singled to center, Bellinger scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 51%
- Fair odds
- WSH -107
- CHC +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.6 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +15 | CHC: Drew Smyly: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +6 Elo | WSH 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.6 | Margin | −1.024th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 3–1128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.