Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Josh JungBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Gurriel Jr. homered to right center (383 feet).12–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 111–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging11–7
- 7Perdomo doubled to right, Walker scored, Fletcher to third.11–7
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball In Play11–7
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul10–7
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul10–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul10–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul10–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 210–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul10–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking10–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 110–7
- 7Fletcher singled to left, Gurriel Jr. scored, Walker to second.10–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 29–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 19–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging10–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–7
- 7Rojas hit sacrifice fly to right, Rivera scored, Gurriel Jr. to third.9–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–7
- 7Walker walked, Marte scored, Gurriel Jr. to second, Rivera to third.8–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 48–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 37–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 27–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–7
- 7Rivera singled to left, Carroll scored, Marte to second.7–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 26–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 16–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 5Jung homered to left center (400 feet), Lowe scored.6–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 5García hit sacrifice fly to center, Jankowski scored.6–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Fair odds
- TEX -116
- ARI +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.7 – 5.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +7 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt (no track record yet) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +55 Elo | TEX 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 6.32nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +2.62nd of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 12th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 12–53rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 0–1 TEX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.