New York Yankees at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Oswald PerazaBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Josh JungBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Higashioka walked, Torres scored, Kiner-Falefa to second, Cabrera to third.2–15
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 42–15
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 31–15
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 21–15
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–15
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 11–15
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–15
- 8León doubled to left, Jung scored.1–15
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–15
- 6Duran singled to center, Jung scored and Heim scored.1–14
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–14
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–12
- 6Heim doubled to center, Lowe scored and García scored, Jung to third.1–12
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–12
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–10
- 6Jung walked, Grossman scored, García to second, Lowe to third.1–10
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball 41–10
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 31–9
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–9
- 6Grossman singled to left, Semien scored.1–9
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–9
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 31–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 5Heim homered to right center (433 feet).1–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 5García homered to left center (391 feet).1–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 5Lowe homered to left center (382 feet), Grossman scored.1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 3Peraza grounded out to third, Hicks scored, Volpe to third.1–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Fair odds
- TEX -113
- NYY +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 4.7 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −4 | NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TEX: Martin Perez: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +26 Elo | TEX 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 6.02nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +2.22nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 15th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 10–55th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 1–2 TEX in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.