New York Yankees at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Willie CalhounBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Rangers- Robbie GrossmanBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Calhoun hit sacrifice fly to center, Rizzo scored.2–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 5Higashioka singled to left, Cabrera scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 3Grossman homered to right (369 feet), Heim scored.0–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 3Heim doubled to center, García scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Semien doubled to left, Grossman scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Duran grounded out to shortstop, Heim scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 57%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- NYY +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 4.7 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +12 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +50 Elo | TEX 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 6.22nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +2.22nd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 8–56th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 1–0 TEX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.