Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle MullerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Robbie GrossmanBatting1-2, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 8Taveras scored on Moll wild pitch, Grossman to second, Jankowski to third.2–5
- 8Taveras scored on Moll wild pitch, Grossman to second on wild pitch by Moll, Jankowski to third on wild pitch by Moll.2–5
- 5Langeliers homered to left (433 feet), J. Diaz scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Grossman hit sacrifice fly to center, Taveras scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Grossman homered to left center (394 feet), Taveras scored and Semien scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 63%
- Fair odds
- TEX -126
- OAK +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.8 – 5.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +12 | OAK: Kyle Muller: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +90 Elo | TEX 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 6.72nd of 30 |
| 30th of 308.2 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−4.8 | Margin | +2.92nd of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–7 | Road vs home | 7–47th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 1–1 TEX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.