Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jordan DiazBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 11 K
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9J. Diaz homered to left (382 feet).5–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 15–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 6Ruiz reached on infield single to third, Capel scored, Langeliers to second.4–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 23–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 5K. Smith scored on Gray wild pitch.3–4
- 5K. Smith scored on Gray wild pitch.3–4
- 5Kemp homered to right center (405 feet).2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 4A. Díaz grounded into fielder's choice to second, Rooker scored, Peterson out at second.1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 1Heim homered to left center (396 feet), Lowe scored and García scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1García singled to left, Grossman scored, Lowe to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Fair odds
- TEX -123
- OAK +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.7 – 5.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +4 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +55 Elo | TEX 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 6.22nd of 30 |
| 30th of 307.9 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−4.5 | Margin | +2.43rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 29th of 301–6 | Road vs home | 6–33rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.