Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh JungBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Royals- Matt DuffyBatting1-3
- Jordan LylesPitching8.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 3Semien homered to left (412 feet).4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Jung homered to left center (441 feet), Semien scored and Jankowski scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 48%
- Fair odds
- KC -104
- TEX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.5 – 4.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −2 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +12 Elo | TEX 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 3.429th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.121st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −1.828th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 13th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 1–930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 2–1 KC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.