Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-4
- Brad KellerPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8García homered to left (400 feet), Semien scored and Jankowski scored.12–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 212–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 8Lowe hit sacrifice fly to left, León scored.9–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–2
- 6Semien homered to left center (417 feet), Miller scored and León scored.8–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 6León singled to right, Duran scored and Grossman scored, Miller to second.5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 4Isbel grounded into fielder's choice to first, Massey scored, Olivares out at second.3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 4Miller grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Grossman scored, Duran out at second.3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 4Duran singled to center, Jung scored, Grossman to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Jankowski singled to right, Miller scored, León to second.1–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Melendez hit sacrifice fly to left, Witt Jr. scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 51%
- Fair odds
- KC -105
- TEX +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.2 – 4.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +15 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · KC: Brad Keller: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +6 Elo | KC 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 3.229th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.120th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −1.927th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 10th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 1–1030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 3–1 KC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.