Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Heim homered to center (429 feet), Lowe scored and Jung scored.12–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–3
- 7Duran doubled to center, Heim scored, Lowe scored and García scored.9–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 19–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging9–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–3
- 7García singled to center, Semien scored, Lowe to second.6–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 6Duffy singled to right, Perez scored.5–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 35–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 6Reyes hit sacrifice fly to center, Pasquantino scored.5–2
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball 25–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 15–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 4Semien singled to center, Taveras scored.5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 4Taveras tripled to right, J. Smith scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Witt Jr. homered to left (430 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Semien singled to right, Taveras scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 45%
- Fair odds
- KC -100
- TEX +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.4 – 4.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −12 | TEX: Martin Perez: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +34 Elo | TEX 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.9 | Runs scored | 3.129th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.424th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.0 | Margin | −2.329th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 7th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 1–1130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 4–1 KC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.