Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jesus AguilarBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adrian MartinezPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting5-5, 3 HR, 8 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Duran homered to left center (401 feet), J. Smith scored.3–18
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–18
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–16
- 8Aguilar homered to center (426 feet).3–16
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–16
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–16
- 7León singled to right, García scored.2–16
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–16
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–15
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–15
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–15
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–15
- 7García doubled to center, Lowe scored and Duran scored.2–15
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–15
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–13
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–13
- 5García homered to left center (401 feet), Lowe scored.2–13
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–13
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–11
- 3García homered to center (419 feet), Lowe scored.2–11
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–11
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 12–9
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–9
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–9
- 3Lowe singled to left, Semien scored.2–9
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–9
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–8
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 12–8
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–8
- 3Semien singled to left, J. Smith scored.2–8
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–8
- 2Heim doubled to center, Jung scored and García scored.2–7
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 2Jung singled to left, Jankowski scored and Semien scored, García to second.2–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 62%
- Fair odds
- TEX -125
- OAK +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.5 – 5.0 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +10 | OAK: Shintaro Fujinami: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +88 Elo | TEX 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 6.12nd of 30 |
| 30th of 307.8 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−4.3 | Margin | +2.22nd of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–6 | Road vs home | 6–48th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 1–0 TEX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.