New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting2-4
- Nestor CortesPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Larnach homered to center (420 feet), Jeffers scored.2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Buxton homered to left (367 feet), Polanco scored.2–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Judge grounded into fielder's choice to third, Hicks to home on error by first baseman Solano, Volpe out at second.2–2
- 5Judge grounded into fielder's choice to third, Hicks to home on error by first baseman Solano, Volpe out at second.2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Polanco doubled to left, Solano scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Solano doubled to left, Taylor scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1LeMahieu singled to right, Judge scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Fair odds
- MIN -111
- NYY +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.9 – 4.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | 0 | NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +12 Elo | MIN 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.79th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 12th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 6–46th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 2–3 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.